Pimco favours 'unloved' platinum that's looking cheap to gold

INGAPORE – Platinum could be the dark horse among precious metals, according to a money manager at Pacific Investment Management Co.

Nic Johnson, Pimco’s managing director and portfolio manager for commodities, says he prefers the metal over gold. Used in autocatalysts of diesel engines and jewelry, it’s the cheapest ever relative to both bullion and palladium, after tumbling 14 percent last year.

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While investors have poured into gold funds, they’ve deserted platinum, which has fallen out of favor amid shrinking demand and excess supply. The possibility the trend reverses even slightly represents a buying opportunity, Johnson said in an interview from Newport Beach, California. With $1.72-trillion under management as of September, Pimco is one of the world’s largest bond managers.

“Platinum is relatively unloved and relatively cheap compared to other precious metals,” Johnson said in an interview last week. “It would only take a rotation of a few percent of the assets in gold exchange-traded funds moving to platinum to really have a big impact on platinum supply-demand balances and prices.”

Platinum was the weakest of the four major precious metals last year as environmental concerns reduce demand for diesel-powered automobiles. By contrast, equity market turmoil and an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve have supported gold and silver, while palladium has benefited from its use in vehicles that run on gasoline.

Gold’s premium over platinum hit a record Jan. 3 after a rally in the last quarter of 2018 pared its annual decline to just 1.6 percent.

Holdings in bullion ETFs are near the highest level since 2013 as speculation grows the Fed may ease its tightening pace or even pause in raising interest rates. Meanwhile, holdings in platinum funds are close to a five-year low.

‘ASYMMETRIC BENEFIT’
Being a much smaller market, even a marginal shift in flows from gold funds could have an outsize impact on platinum prices, according to Johnson. The same is true for use in jewelry, he said.

“The possibility for some rotation exists and can have an asymmetric benefit to platinum,” he said.

Spot platinum traded at $799 an ounce on Wednesday, not far from the lowest intraday price in a decade, and gold was at $1 289.39. While bullion could still climb above $1 400 this year if interest rates trend lower or investors flee risky equities in search of a haven, Johnson says it’s fairly priced or even marginally overvalued by a few percent.

“Platinum is a more compelling metal to own than gold,” he said.

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